I have proven myself wrong

I keep working on a proof-of-concept paper for the idea I baptized ‘Energy Ponds’. You can consult two previous updates, namely ‘We keep going until we observe’ and ‘Ça semble expérimenter toujours’ to keep track of the intellectual drift I am taking. This time, I am focusing on the end of the technological pipeline, namely on the battery-powered charging station for electric cars. First, I want to make myself an idea of the market for charging.

I take the case of France. In December 2020, they had a total of 119 737 electric vehicles officially registered (matriculated), which made + 135% as compared to December 2019[1]. That number pertains only to 100% electrical ones, with plug-in hybrids left aside for the moment. When plug-in hybrids enter the game, France had, in December 2020, 470 295 vehicles that need or might need the services of charging stations. According to the same source, there were 28 928 charging stations in France at the time, which makes 13 EVs per charging station. That coefficient is presented for 4 other European countries: Norway (23 EVs per charging station), UK (12), Germany (9), and Netherlands (4).

I look up into other sources. According to Reuters[2], there was 250 000 charging stations in Europe by September 2020, as compared to 34 000 in 2014. That means an average increase by 36 000 a year. I find a different estimation with Statista[3]: 2010 – 3 201; 2011 – 7 018; 2012 – 17 498; 2013 – 28 824; 2014 – 40 910; 2015 – 67 064; 2016 – 98 669; 2017 – 136 059; 2018 – 153 841; 2019 – 211 438; 2020 – 285 796.

On the other hand, the European Alternative Fuels Observatory supplies their own data at https://www.eafo.eu/electric-vehicle-charging-infrastructure, as regards European Union.

Number of EVs per charging station (source: European Alternative Fuels Observatory):

EVs per charging station
201014
20116
20123
20134
20145
20155
20165
20175
20186
20197
20209

The same EAFO site gives their own estimation as regards the number of charging stations in Europe:

Number of charging stations in Europe (source: European Alternative Fuels Observatory):

High-power recharging points (more than 22 kW) in EUNormal charging stations in EUTotal charging stations
201225710 25010 507
201375117 09317 844
20141 47424 91726 391
20153 39644 78648 182
20165 19070 01275 202
20178 72397 287106 010
201811 138107 446118 584
201915 136148 880164 016
202024 987199 250224 237

Two conclusions jump to the eye. Firstly, there is just a very approximate count of charging stations. Numbers differ substantially from source to source. I can just guess that one of the reasons for that discrepancy is the distinction between officially issued permits to build charging points, on the one hand, and the actually active charging points, on the other hand. In Europe, building charging points for electric vehicles has become sort of a virtue, which governments at all levels like signaling. I guess there is some boasting and chest-puffing in the numbers those individual countries report.  

Secondly, high-power stations, charging with direct current, with a power of at least 22 kWh,  gain in importance. In 2012, that category made 2,45% of the total charging network in Europe, and in 2020 that share climbed to 11,14%. This is an important piece of information as regards the proof-of-concept which I am building up for my idea of Energy Ponds. The charging station I placed at the end of the pipeline in the concept of Energy Ponds, and which is supposed to earn a living for all the technologies and installations upstream of it, is supposed to be powered from a power storage facility. That means direct current, and most likely, high power.   

On the whole, the www.eafo.eu site seems somehow more credible that Statista, with all the due respect for the latter, and thus I am reporting some data they present on the fleet of EVs in Europe. Here it comes, in a few consecutive tables below:

Passenger EVs in Europe (source: European Alternative Fuels Observatory):

BEV (pure electric)PHEV (plug-in-hybrid)Total
20084 1554 155
20094 8414 841
20105 7855 785
201113 39516313 558
201225 8913 71229 603
201345 66232 47478 136
201475 47956 745132 224
2015119 618125 770245 388
2016165 137189 153354 290
2017245 347254 473499 820
2018376 398349 616726 014
2019615 878479 7061 095 584
20201 125 485967 7212 093 206

Light Commercial EVs in Europe (source: European Alternative Fuels Observatory):

BEV (pure electric)PHEV (plug-in-hybrid)Total
2008253253
2009254254
2010309309
20117 6697 669
20129 5279 527
201313 66913 669
201410 04910 049
201528 61028 610
201640 926140 927
201752 026152 027
201876 286176 287
201997 36311797 480
2020120 7111 054121 765

Bus EVs in Europe (source: European Alternative Fuels Observatory):

BEV (pure electric)PHEV (plug-in-hybrid)Total
20082727
20091212
2010123123
2011128128
2012286286
2013376376
201438940429
2015420145565
2016686304990
20178884451 333
20181 6084862 094
20193 6365254 161
20205 3115505 861

Truck EVs in Europe (source: European Alternative Fuels Observatory):

BEV (pure electric)PHEV (plug-in-hybrid)Total
200855
200955
201066
201177
201288
20134747
20145858
20157171
201611339152
2017544094
201822240262
201959538633
2020983291 012

Structure of EV fleet in Europe as regards the types of vehicles (source: European Alternative Fuels Observatory):

Passenger EVLight commercial EVBus EVTruck EV
200893,58%5,70%0,61%0,11%
200994,70%4,97%0,23%0,10%
201092,96%4,97%1,98%0,10%
201163,47%35,90%0,60%0,03%
201275,09%24,17%0,73%0,02%
201384,72%14,82%0,41%0,05%
201492,62%7,04%0,30%0,04%
201589,35%10,42%0,21%0,03%
201689,39%10,33%0,25%0,04%
201790,34%9,40%0,24%0,02%
201890,23%9,48%0,26%0,03%
201991,46%8,14%0,35%0,05%
202094,21%5,48%0,26%0,05%

Summing it up a bit. The market of Electric Vehicles in Europe seems being durably dominated by passenger cars. There is some fleet in other categories of vehicles, and there is even some increase, but, for the moment, in all looks more like an experiment. Well, maybe electric buses turn up sort of more systemically.

The proportion between the fleet of electric vehicles and the infrastructure of charging stations still seems to be in the phase of adjustment in the latter to the abundance of the former. Generally, the number of charging stations seems to be growing slower than the fleet of EVs. Thus, for my own concept, I assume that the coefficient of 9 EVs per charging station, on average, will stand still or will slightly increase. For the moment, I take 9. I assume that my charging stations will have like 9 habitual customers, plus a fringe of incidental ones.

From there, I think in the following terms. The number of times the average customer charges their car depends on the distance they cover. Apparently, there is like a 100 km  50 kWh equivalence. I did not find detailed statistics as regards distances covered by electric vehicles as such, however I came by some Eurostat data on distances covered by all passenger vehicles taken together: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Passenger_mobility_statistics#Distance_covered . There is a lot of discrepancy between the 11 European countries studied for that metric, but the average is 12,49 km per day. My average 9 customers would do, in total, an average of 410,27 of 50 kWh charging purchases per year. I checked the prices of fast charging with direct current: 2,3 PLN per 1 kWh in Poland[4],  €0,22 per 1 kWh in France[5], $0,13 per 1 kWh in US[6], 0,25 pence per 1 kWh in UK[7]. Once converted to US$, it gives $0,59 in Poland, $0,26 in France, $0,35 in UK, and, of course, $0,13 in US. Even at the highest price, namely that in Poland, those 410,27 charging stops give barely more than $12 000 a year.

If I want to have a station able to charge 2 EVs at the same time, fast charging, and counting 350 kW per charging pile (McKinsey 2018[8]), I need 700 kW it total. Investment in batteries is like $600 ÷ $800 per 1 kW (Cole & Frazier 2019[9]; Cole, Frazier, Augustine 2021[10]), thus 700 * ($600 ÷ $800) = $420 000 ÷ $560 000. There is no way that investment pays back with $12 000 a year in revenue, and I haven’t even started talking about paying off on investment in all the remaining infrastructure of Energy Ponds: ram pumps, elevated tanks, semi-artificial wetlands, and hydroelectric turbines.

Now, I revert my thinking. Investment in the range of $420 000 ÷ $560 000, in the charging station and its batteries, gives a middle-of-the-interval value of $490 000. I found a paper by Zhang et al. (2018[11]) who claim that a charging station has chances to pay off, as a business, when it sells some 5 000 000 kWh a year. When I put it back-to-back with the [50 kWh / 100 km] coefficient, it gives 10 000 000 km. Divided by the average annual distance covered by European drivers, thus by 4 558,55 km, it gives 2 193,68 customers per year, or some 6 charging stops per day. That seems hardly feasible with 9 customers. I assume that one customer would charge their electric vehicle no more than twice a week, and 6 chargings a day make 6*7 = 42 chargings, and therefore 21 customers.

I need to stop and think. Essentially, I have proven myself wrong. I had been assuming that putting a charging station for electric vehicles at the end of the internal value chain in the overall infrastructure of Energy Ponds will solve the problem of making money on selling electricity. Turns out it makes even more problems. I need time to wrap my mind around it.


[1] http://www.avere-france.org/Uploads/Documents/161011498173a9d7b7d55aef7bdda9008a7e50cb38-barometre-des-immatriculations-decembre-2020(9).pdf

[2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-autos-electric-charging-idUSKBN2C023C

[3] https://www.statista.com/statistics/955443/number-of-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-in-europe/

[4] https://elo.city/news/ile-kosztuje-ladowanie-samochodu-elektrycznego

[5] https://particulier.edf.fr/fr/accueil/guide-energie/electricite/cout-recharge-voiture-electrique.html

[6] https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_charging_home.html

[7] https://pod-point.com/guides/driver/cost-of-charging-electric-car

[8] McKinsey Center for Future Mobility, How Battery Storage Can Help Charge the Electric-Vehicle Market?, February 2018,

[9] Cole, Wesley, and A. Will Frazier. 2019. Cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage.

Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-73222. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/73222.pdf

[10] Cole, Wesley, A. Will Frazier, and Chad Augustine. 2021. Cost Projections for UtilityScale Battery Storage: 2021 Update. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy

Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-79236. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/79236.pdf.

[11] Zhang, J., Liu, C., Yuan, R., Li, T., Li, K., Li, B., … & Jiang, Z. (2019). Design scheme for fast charging station for electric vehicles with distributed photovoltaic power generation. Global Energy Interconnection, 2(2), 150-159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloei.2019.07.003

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